Killer Conservatives – The Farage Effect

All over the world there seems to be a shift of politics to the right. Here in the UK, our political discourse can seem polite in comparison to the USA, India and now much of Europe, but we now have our own far right party set to make a significant impact on the forthcoming election.

I have written before about killer conservatives in terms of the harsh effects due to Austerity, Brexit and how antivaccination Republicans in the US damage health, but sadly this is likely to get worse.

At the stroke of a pen, it seems Nigel Farage, arch architect of Brexit, has become a major figure in this election. One poll has his Reform party a point ahead of the Conservatives, though seven others taken at the same time don’t. At the seventh attempt, it seems highly likely he will enter Parliament as MP for Clacton and establish what he calls a ‘bridgehead’ in the Commons.

He claims to be the real opposition to what increasingly looks like a forthcoming Labour Government. Further, he suggests in the event of a Conservative ‘wipe-out’, he could become the leader of a new alliance of the Tory and Reform Party and potentially, at some time in the not too distant future, our first far-right Prime Minister. While he habitually makes grandiose statement, he and Reform needs to be taken seriously – he is our very own English brand of Donald Trump.

Indeed, he had planned to spend the summer in the USA helping the Trump campaign, but ever the opportunist, decided to cash in on Tory malaise after sniffing victory in Clacton, the only constituency to elect a UKIP MP, back in 2015. At that time Farage claimed UKIP would hold the balance of power in Parliament. They didn’t, but to attract some UKIP votes, the Conservatives, forever putting party before country, promised the 2016 ballot on the EU and the rest is history.

How has this happened?

Charisma rather than character and soundbites rather than policy appeals to a frustrated electorate and apathetic Conservative base, many of whom may well vote Reform. He taps into the 30% of voters who are convinced immigration is the major reason for economic decline, housing problems and declining public services.  

He tags onto this the usual targets of ‘wokeism’, multiculturalism, feminism, gay rights, a significant sprinkling of anti-vaccination. Science has no part to play in his thinking. He offered support to Alex Jones of Infowars at the time of his Sandy Hook shooting denial and the equally repugnant misogynist Andrew Tate.  It seems almost inevitable that he will solve climate change by denial of its existence.

Unlike Labour, Farage doesn’t feel the need to be careful not to cause a wobble – the so-called ‘Ming-Vase’ effect. Rather, he lobs verbal grenades wherever he likes, knowing that all he needs to do to get to elected is just to carry on being his usual rabble-rousing odious self, which also appeals to some who are otherwise are experiencing the dullest election in a lifetime.

His hastily drawn up 2024 manifesto lays out more broadly what populism would mean for us.  

The Brexit non-effect

That Brexit seems largely off the political agenda allows him to completely escape his significant responsibility for the damage it has done to this country, including working at that time with Russianswho were keen to encourage division in the EU.

His response to the unfolding self-harm which is Brexit is predictable. It’s not Brexit that is the problem, it’s the way is has been done – left to him, all would be well. Indeed, he wants to go further. Casually ending the Windsor Framework scrap will cause all sort of sectarian problems in Ulster and threaten the Good Friday agreement, scrapping all the adopted 6,700 EU regulations, effectively end any co-operation with Europe about anything, effectively reducing trade with our biggest trading partners and cause regulatory mayhem.  So far, so bad.

Immigration

Many Reform voters buy into the catcall that without the millions of immigrants in the UK, there would be no housing crisis, our public services would be running sweetly, and we would all be so much happier with more jobs, better pay and our culture (whatever that is) would be as it was – the answer is an end to all illegal immigration and net-zero legal immigration.

To achieve this, he wants to increase employers National Insurance for migrants to encourage preference for non-migrants, leave the ECHR to avoid human right legalisation, forcibly return boat migrants to France and turn the Home Office into Department of Immigration, despite its many other roles.

He aims for ‘net zero’ legal immigration by restricting visas for foreign workers and making most foreign graduates leave, oblivious to the key role immigrants play in many sectors including farming and just about all public services.

Farage can say anything he likes knowing that he won’t have the power to have to put ideas into action.  He need not discuss the problems of an ageing population which can only be solved by increased tax takes to fund higher wages in the care sector, or immigration. He stokes the fires of hatred and offers immigrants as a scapegoat for all our many ills.

Tax giveaways

Reform will increase the lower tax threshold from £12.5 to £20K and the upper 40% tax threshold from 40 to £70k, giving a handout to the well off. For the poorest earning £12.5k or less, there would be no gain, those earning up to £40k would gain £1480 pa, (the average UK wage is £26k/year), the 5-10% of the population earning £70k+ would gain £13,486.  Cost of living crisis solved is the headline, but social inequality would be significantly increased, and reduced government income would destroy much of what is left of our public services.

A better idea is the reduction of the interest we pay to commercial banks on reserves originating from quantitative easing 15 years ago. This could yield big sums of money as suggested by the left leaning New Economics Foundationand has been pounced upon by Farage.

He would scrap stamp duty on houses less than <£750k, VAT on energy bills and on small businesses, end inheritance tax on estates worth less than £2m, reduce fuel tax and introduce a 3% tax on anything bought online. Much of this can be offered in the sure knowledge that he will not have to try it out. His sums simply don’t add up and he studiously avoids discussing who would lose out, though it’s clear the size of the state would shrink even more.

Health

His own opinion is to move away from a state funded system, but has avoided that in the manifesto in favour of more headlines.

He states he will eliminate waiting lists in 2 years by exempting health workers from basic rate income tax for three years, gradually write off medical student debt over 10 years of NHS service, offer tax breaks for private health insurance, vouchers to fund private healthcare if you can’t see a GP within 3 days, reduce excess management and solve the A+E and primary care crisis by somehow getting people go to pharmacists, who he fantasises as having the skill or time to take up some huge burdens.

Revealingly, he also wants to set up a public inquiry into the safety of COVID vaccines and their relationship to excess deaths in the UK, stating:

“Excess deaths are nearly as high as they were during the Covid pandemic. Young people are over-represented.” 

This is factually incorrect. The latest official sources show clearly this is not the case:

“In the second half of 2023, from July to December, the new report shows 10,613 fewer deaths than expected (4% lower than expected)”.

This reveals a dangerous distain for medical science, civil service, public health and his lack of discrimination between fact and fiction. In power, no doubt he would be telling the experts what is really happening according to his whim.

A public inquiry into vaccine harm would attract lots of antivaccine pseudo-experts and cranks, lining up to testify making headlines out of anti-science. Even though their case would be easily debunked, under someone like Farage, the hearings would bring us a step towards the McCarthy era like persecution currently faced by American public health doctors.

Welfare

Incredibly, benefits for those seeking work will end after 4 months, after which the unemployed will be destitute. He will put pressure on those claiming disability related benefits and force them to undergo ‘independent’ medical examinations for incapacity, and presumably expect many who feel they are incapable of work to find jobs in 4 months or else. This has not been much under the spotlight; despite the immense destitution and suffering it would cause.

Public utilities

Richard Tice has announced plans to nationalise 50% of utilities, with the other 50% owned by pension funds, He also wants an end to foreign ownership of utilities. Little detail of how would they find the money to buy back the privatised utilities or how they would be run.

Farming

Reform wants to increase the farming budget from £2.4 to £3bn, encourage young farmers, and. predictably, protect hunting and shooting. He says nothing about the Brexit induced farming deals which have harmed farmers and farming, but wants to end any subsidies or grants for that relate to sustainability. He clearly believes there are an infinite number of fish just waiting to be caught.

Law

He wants life sentences for drug dealers and those guilty of repeated violent crime with 10,000 more prison places for starters. Boot camps for younger offenders, an end to anything connected to diversity or race training for police. Military veterans will take over key leadership roles in the police, 40,000 more police officers, and a total ban, in other words, criminalisation of any marches to protest at the situation in Palestine. Counts of hate crimes will drop to zero immediately he stops counting them.

Family courts will be urged to adopt a 50:50 rule for childcare, adding flesh to the anti-female tropes he fancies as a purported ‘regular bloke’.  Everything is so straightforward in Farage’s fantasy land.

Education

Tax breaks for the private sector, boot camps for excluded kids, an end to ‘transgender ideology’. Any teaching of the wrongs of UK history to be balanced with learning that others were just as bad – “children must be taught about their heritage”. Scrap interest on student loans which will be extended to 45 years and force universities to offer cut price two-year degrees.

Solve climate change by denying its existence

Here disdain for science reaches its most dangerous. Reform will increase the use of fossil fuels, end carbon targets, scrap green subsidies, increase drilling for oil and encourage shale and coal mining. He would end climate related farming subsidies. Again, denying a problem will not make it go away and here he is at his most idiotic.

PERNICIOUS POPULISM

It is self-evident that politicians achieve power by offering popular policies. Populism takes this beyond what is reasonable or possible. It offers simplistic appeals to the “common sense fallacy” to solve the complex dilemmas of our age, manipulates the frustration and anger of significant numbers of people who see no end to their struggles in life and appeals to conspiracy theorists.

The 2024 election has a major and recurrent theme in recent democracy – voting out the present unpopular incumbents – vote for a change, even if you are not inspired by the opposition. More voting against than voting for. That leaves a gap to be exploited.

Farage and his Reform UK need to be taken seriously. They plan to take the Conservatives further to the right and change society in a way which will cause immense harm to many people through reduced public services, a brutal justice system, persecution of immigrants and refugees, a weakened and shrunk state with little regulatory oversight, or power to enforce what regulations are left, and complete removal of our ability, such as it is, to respond to the dangers of climate change. The basic ethic of Farage’s society will be cruelty, hatred and persecution.

On the other hand, he may not get elected. His recent comments on the Ukraine war has dropped his support to 15%, though for me this remains a huge number of people prepared to support him. Reform may get no MP’s anywhere thus fading once again back into the endless alt-right talk shows and self-publicity. He has a habit of moving on and leaving disgruntled colleagues when the Farage bandwagon leaves town.

If elected, he will be exposed to scrutiny for his irresponsible rhetoric and idiotic policies and leave those more skilled in facts and oratory to reveal him as the charlatan he is. Yet, reason, science, evidence, long-term thinking, and honesty play less and less of a part in politics, so if elected, he will milk the experience for all its worth and generate increasing headlines. The more of his scientific illiteracy is displayed, the more he will claim the mantle of persecuted outsider.

His hatred of immigrants, casual attitude to destroying our health and social sectors, persecution of the jobless and petty criminals, and his denial of real threats to humanity is for me why Farage is a killer conservative and why, if I were a resident of Clacton, I would do the unthinkable. I would vote Conservative as they are most likely to keep him out.

We will find out how this plays out next week.

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